REPCO

On October 26th, parliamentary elections were held in Georgia, with the ruling Georgian Dream party declaring victory. However, the results quickly came into question as they starkly contradicted the exit polls. Numerous reports surfaced, raising serious concerns about the integrity of the election process, suggesting that the elections may have been rigged. The most prominent issue was the violation of voter anonymity, with some ballots revealing voters' choices due to poor paper quality. Judge Vladimer Khuchua of Tetritskaro Municipality confirmed that voter secrecy had indeed been breached, setting a significant legal precedent. Consequently, the results from 30 polling stations were annulled. However, this ruling was later overturned by the upper chamber of the court. This was a decision not surprising to many, given the near total control the Georgian Dream party holds over the judiciary.

Prior to the official results being announced, opposition parties had expressed optimism, celebrating what they believed to be a victory based on exit poll projections. However, when the official results declared the ruling party’s victory, which showed an even stronger performance than in previous elections, it triggered a political crisis. This development raised further doubts about the legitimacy of the elections. For the first time in Georgian history, the president of Georgia, Salome Zourabichvili, publicly declared that the elections had been rigged. She stated that the new parliament was illegitimate and urged four major opposition parties to refuse to take their seats. This declaration marked the beginning of widespread protests across the country.

Although the protests were initially small, they quickly gained momentum and became a daily feature of Georgia’s political life. Adding to the public's frustration was the announcement of Mikheil Kavelashvili as Georgian Dream’s new presidential candidate. A former footballer, Kavelashvili has made little impact as a politician. He is widely known for his radical pro-Russian views and for his controversial remarks directed at political opponents. His candidacy was met with widespread disdain, drawing comparisons to the infamous decision by Roman Emperor Caligula, who made his horse a senator.

The public's discontent with Kavelashvili goes beyond his personality. Many Georgians are frustrated by his lack of formal education, as he has never earned a university degree. This, coupled with his radical views, has intensified the sense of alienation felt by many citizens.

In response to the ongoing crisis, President Zourabichvili declared that she would not vacate the presidential palace, asserting that she represented the only legitimate institution in the country. She regards the newly-elected parliament as illegitimate and stated that it does not matter whether or not they elect Kavelashvili as president. The president also called for the resignation of Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and demanded that a date for new elections be announced within two weeks.

International condemnation

On November 28th, the European Parliament took a significant step, passing a resolution declaring the recent parliamentary elections in Georgia to be fraudulent. The resolution rejected the election results and called for sanctions against the leaders of Georgian Dream. It further demanded that new elections be held in a reformed electoral environment, under the supervision of an independent and impartial electoral administration. The resolution received overwhelming support and was introduced by five major political groups in the European Parliament: the European People’s Party, Social Democrats, Greens, Liberals, and European Conservatives. With 444 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) voting in favour, 72 against, and 82 abstaining, the resolution underscored the European Union’s disapproval of the election process in Georgia.

Though the resolution is not legally binding, it carries significant political weight and serves as a powerful symbolic statement of the European Union’s position. The decision of the European Parliament raises serious questions about the legitimacy of Georgia’s October elections and may signal a turning point in the country's political trajectory. It has the potential to spark significant shifts regarding both domestic and international political dynamics. The call for new elections in a reformed environment could result in far-reaching changes to Georgia’s political landscape, driving much-needed reforms and reshaping the country's governance.

The European Union's stance has provoked outrage within the Georgian ruling party. In response to the resolution, Georgian Dream announced its decision to suspend negotiations on EU membership until 2028, despite the fact that approximately 80 per cent of the Georgian population supports EU accession. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, in a defiant speech, accused the European Parliament and certain European leaders of "blackmail".

This decision, coupled with the prime minister’s rhetoric, sparked widespread protests across Georgia, making it evident that the government is willing to defy the country’s constitution. In 2018, Euro-Atlantic provisions were added to the Georgian Constitution through an amendment. Article 78 of the document specifically states:

“The constitutional bodies shall take all measures within the scope of their competences to ensure the full integration of Georgia into the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.”

The government's actions, particularly its response to the European Union’s resolution, have raised concerns that it is willing to undermine the constitution in order to maintain its grip on power. In recent days, tensions in Georgia have surged as special forces and riot police have aggressively responded to largely peaceful protests, using water cannons, pepper spray, and tear gas. While most demonstrators have remained non-violent, a small group of youth has engaged in more confrontational actions, including throwing objects and shooting fireworks. In turn, the police have escalated their tactics, deploying tear gas and chemical-laced water jets aimed directly at individuals. The violence has affected both protesters and journalists. A shocking video showing a young teen being kicked in the face by two police officers while already on the ground has sparked widespread outrage. Meanwhile, a 22-year-old remains in a coma after sustaining injuries during the protests. Journalists covering the events have also become victims of police brutality, with several injured while reporting on the unrest on Rustaveli Avenue.

In response to the growing violence, mothers across the nation gathered outside police stations in a powerful show of solidarity, calling on officers to uphold their oath to protect citizens, rather than perpetuating injustice and brutality. The demand for accountability continues to intensify, drawing both domestic and international condemnation.

Parody politics

On December 14th, Mikheil Kavelashvili, the former football player, was elected by a 300-seat electoral college made up of members of parliament, municipal councils and regional legislatures. This followed the replacement of direct presidential elections. His win was almost guaranteed, as he was the only candidate. During the election proceedings, a “Mother's March” was held in front of the presidential palace. President Salome Zourabichvili left the palace to express her gratitude to the participants. While speaking with them, she remarked on the elections: "No one has been elected. Nothing has changed. I will continue my work —what else should I do?" One day later, she addressed a press conference, stating: "What will happen in parliament tomorrow is a parody. It will be an event entirely devoid of legitimacy, unconstitutional and illegitimate."

In short, the president has asserted her position by stating that she remains the legitimate president, as the parliament itself is illegitimate. Therefore, the president chosen by the parliament is also illegitimate. A similar statement was issued jointly by the four major opposition parties.

The internal rejection of the new president was followed by international disapproval. The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and the global coalition of liberal political parties, Liberal International, have issued a statement regarding Georgian Dream's appointment of Mikheil Kavelashvili as president of Georgia. It asserted that this move does not represent the will of the Georgian people. The statement also reaffirms their continued recognition of Salome Zourabichvili as the legitimately elected president. Members of the European Parliament and several foreign politicians have already stated that they do not consider the new president legitimate. For instance, the MEP Rasa Juknevičienė stated: “There were no real elections today. What took place was a farce – just like in Russia, Belarus, and other autocracies.The only legitimate official in Georgia is President Zourabichvili,elected as a result of free elections…Ivanishvili continues the state capture.”

US Representative Joe Wilson raised alarm over the situation in Georgia, labelling the ruling party as an “illegitimate puppet government” and denouncing its “brutal” crackdown on protesters. He called for immediate sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream allies, emphasizing that the US cannot stand by as Georgia potentially falls into dictatorship,against the will of its citizens. Wilson made these comments on X. Additionally, on December 12th, the US State Department imposed visa restrictions on around twenty individuals involved in undermining democracy in Georgia. Affected individuals include government ministers, parliamentarians, law enforcement officials, and private citizens. The State Department did not disclose their identities.

A powder keg

It is difficult to predict what may unfold in Georgia in the coming weeks, months and even days. However, it is likely that tensions could escalate late in December, as the ruling government will likely intensify its efforts to remove Salome Zourabichvili from the presidential palace. While police brutality has slightly decreased in recent days, Georgia remains a powder keg, where any spark could trigger an explosion. It seems that Georgian Dream is more concerned about the US than the European Union. Personally, I believe they will risk everything and remain tough on the opposition until they face stronger repercussions from the international community, including harsher sanctions or other severe actions. Georgian Dream appears to believe that, like Trump and his administration, the US will turn a blind eye to their violations, allowing them to maintain power. It is clear that this crisis can only be resolved through new democratic and free elections. If the Georgian people fail to bring this about, and if the international community does not take strong action, it is highly likely that Georgian Dream will hold onto power for years to come. Who will stop them then?

In conclusion, the ongoing political crisis in Georgia has become a pivotal moment for the nation, as it grapples with accusations of election fraud, widespread protests, and a deepening rift with the European Union. The erosion of democratic principles, exemplified by the manipulation of electoral processes and the crackdown on peaceful demonstrators, has not only polarized the country but also placed its future political trajectory at a crossroads. With mounting domestic and international pressure for accountability, Georgia faces a critical choice: either embrace much-needed reforms and restore trust in its democratic institutions, or continue down a path of defiance, further alienating its people and jeopardizing its aspirations for European integration. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the Georgian government can navigate this crisis or risk plunging the country into a prolonged period of instability.

Lasha Gamjashvili holds a Bachelor's degree with honors in Social Sciences, specializing in International Relations, from International Black Sea University in Tbilisi and a Master's degree in Social Sciences from Vytautas Magnus University in Vilnius. He has also completed various programs at prestigious European universities, including Justus Liebig University Giessen, the University of Oslo, and the University of Tartu. Lasha has worked with several international programs, such as the German Marshall Fund and the Disruption Network Lab. As a graduate of the Advocacy and Leadership Program, he is also a member of the Swedish Institute Network.

Public task financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland within the grant competition “Public Diplomacy 2024 – 2025 – the European dimension and countering disinformation”.

The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the official positions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland.